> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.jup.ag/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Prediction Markets
> Trade on real-world events by buying YES or NO contracts on specific outcomes.
## What Is Jupiter Predict?
Jupiter Predict is a prediction market experience on Solana. It lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying contracts for either side of a market: **YES** or **NO**.
A winning contract is designed to pay **\$1 worth of the market's settlement asset**. If the market resolves against your side, the contract expires worthless.
Jupiter brings prediction markets into the Jupiter trading experience. Markets may be sourced from external prediction market providers, Jupiter-supported market integrations, or short-duration crypto markets. Availability, liquidity, and settlement timing can differ by market.
You need a Solana wallet and a small amount of SOL for network fees. The order panel shows the supported funding token, expected contracts, fees, and settlement details before you sign.
## How It Works
Most markets on Jupiter Predict are binary. You pick a side, buy contracts at the current market price, and either hold until settlement or sell before trading closes.
### Price Equals Implied Probability
Contract prices usually trade between \$0.01 and \$0.99 and reflect the market's view of how likely an outcome is. A YES contract priced at \$0.70 means traders are currently paying about 70 cents for the YES side. The corresponding NO side is usually priced near \$0.30.
These prices are not guarantees. They move with supply, demand, liquidity, and new information.
### Profit and Loss
Your profit depends on what you paid, whether your side wins, and any fees paid when entering or exiting.
You buy 10 YES contracts at \$0.30 each. You spend \$3 before fees.
* If the market resolves to YES: each contract pays \$1. You receive \$10. Profit before fees: \$7.
* If the market resolves to NO: your contracts expire worthless. You lose the \$3 you spent.
You buy 10 NO contracts at \$0.40 each. You spend \$4 before fees.
* If the market resolves to NO: each contract pays \$1. You receive \$10. Profit before fees: \$6.
* If the market resolves to YES: your contracts expire worthless. You lose the \$4 you spent.
You do not have to wait for settlement. If the market is still open and there is enough liquidity, you can sell your contracts at the current bid price. Some market types, such as special markets on sporting events, cannot be sold and must be held to resolution.
## Browse and Degen
Jupiter Predict has two main trading surfaces.
Events across categories like sports, crypto, politics, economics, culture, finance, and more.
Each market includes a rules summary that explains how the result is expected to be determined.
Short-duration crypto markets where you predict whether a token's price will move **Up** or **Down** over a fixed window.
Available assets, windows, and limits can change. Use the filters in the app for the current set of live markets.
## Categories
Browse markets are organised into categories. The available list can change as new markets are added or removed.
| Category | Examples |
| --------- | ---------------------------------------------------- |
| Sports | Championship winners, match results, MVP awards |
| Crypto | Token price targets, network milestones |
| Politics | Election outcomes, nominations, policy decisions |
| Esports | Tournament winners, match outcomes |
| Culture | Awards, entertainment, public figures |
| Economics | Interest rate decisions, macro indicators |
| Tech | Product launches, company milestones |
| Finance | Stock movements, commodity prices |
| Weather | Temperature, climate events |
| Mentions | Predictions on what public figures or media will say |
You can also filter by **Live** to see markets currently trading, or use search to find a specific event.
## Order Types
Jupiter Predict currently uses **market orders** as the main live order type.
* **Market order**: attempts to execute at the best available price when you place the trade. If the price or liquidity changes before execution, the order may fail or fill with fewer contracts than expected.
* **Limit order**: lets you choose a target price and wait for a match.
**Limit orders are temporarily paused.** The Limit tab may appear in the UI, but new limit orders are not currently available.
## Fees
Fees are shown in the order quote before you sign. They are charged only on executed trades.
Fee amounts can vary by market and route. A trade may include provider fees, Jupiter fees, or route-specific fees depending on where liquidity comes from. Solana network fees and account rent are separate on-chain costs paid in SOL.
If an order does not execute, trading fees are not charged. Any unused funds are returned automatically.
## Settlement and Payouts
When a market closes, trading stops. The result is determined according to the market's rules. Some market routes record eligible results on-chain, while other integrations may settle through their own route and reflect the status in Profile.
The settlement flow usually works like this:
1. The market reaches its close time and trading stops.
2. The market's source or integration determines the result from the published rules.
3. The result is recorded on-chain or reflected through the relevant integration.
4. Profile updates with claimable, refundable, automatic, lost, or final status.
5. If Profile shows an action, follow the prompt. Some outcomes are processed automatically.
6. Losing positions expire worthless. No action is needed.
A market can be resolved by its source before it appears as settled on Jupiter. This is expected while the result is being picked up, recorded, or reflected in Profile.
Some markets can resolve to a refund or draw outcome depending on the rules. In those cases, eligible refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in Profile. Profile shows the refund status and any available action once settlement status is available.
## Additional Features
A personalised feed of recommended events based on your activity.
Public ranking of traders by PnL, Volume, or Win Rate. Filterable by All Time, Weekly, or Monthly.
View your positions, open orders, trade history, claims, and refunds.
## Risks
Prediction markets carry real financial risk. Read the points below carefully before trading.
* **You can lose your entire position.** If the outcome goes against your prediction, your contracts expire worthless.
* **Prices reflect current market demand, not certainty.** Markets can be wrong, illiquid, or slow to react to new information.
* **Liquidity varies.** Some markets may have wide spreads or low depth, which can make it hard to buy or sell at the displayed price.
* **Sells execute at the bid.** Closing a position usually returns less than the displayed mid price because of the spread.
* **Settlement depends on market rules and integrations.** Some market routes record results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own process.
* **Settlement is not instant.** There can be a delay between market close, source resolution, final status updates, and claim or refund availability.
* **Token and stablecoin risks apply.** Trades and payouts use dollar-pegged assets, which can carry issuer, liquidity, and depeg risk.
* **Regulatory restrictions apply.** Prediction markets may be restricted or regulated in your jurisdiction. Trading is unavailable in some regions, including the United States and South Korea, and the Jupiter Mobile app restricts additional regions (including parts of the EU).
## What You Need
A wallet such as Phantom or Solflare, connected to Jupiter.
The order panel shows which token can be used for the selected market and route.
For Solana transaction fees and account rent. Rent is recovered automatically when eligible accounts are closed.