> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.jup.ag/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# How Predict Works
> Detailed mechanics of Jupiter Prediction Markets: events, contracts, orders, fees, settlement, and the Degen mode.
This page covers the detailed mechanics of Jupiter Predict. For a high-level introduction, see the [Overview](/user-docs/trade/predict).
## Events and Markets
An **event** is a real-world occurrence with a determinable outcome. For example: "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" or "UEFA Champions League Winner."
Each event contains one or more **markets**. Each market represents a specific outcome within the event and is usually binary: YES or NO.
For example, an election event can contain separate markets for several candidates. Each candidate market trades independently. You can buy YES on one candidate without taking a position on any other candidate.
### Multi-Outcome Events
Events with many possible outcomes are displayed with the top outcomes visible by default. Click **Show More** to drill down and see additional sub-markets.
The probabilities across all sub-markets within a multi-outcome event do not always sum to exactly 100%. Each sub-market can have its own liquidity, spread, and price history.
### Market States
A market moves through several states from creation to settlement:
The market is visible but trading has not started yet. The UI may show a countdown.
The market is actively trading. Buy and sell actions are available when liquidity and routing support them.
Trading has stopped. The market is waiting for the result to be determined and recorded.
The result is final. Profile shows claim, refund, automatic, lost, or final status.
## Contracts
A **contract** is a financial claim tied to one side of one market.
* A winning contract pays **\$1 worth of the market's settlement asset**.
* A losing contract pays **\$0** and expires worthless.
* Some markets can resolve to a refund or draw outcome if the market rules require it.
Contract prices usually range from **\$0.01 to \$0.99**. The price reflects the current market-implied probability for that side. A YES contract at \$0.65 means traders are currently paying about 65 cents for the YES side.
### Funding and Settlement Assets
Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token can depend on the market and route. In some flows, Jupiter may route your input into the market's settlement asset before the order is placed.
The order panel shows the token, estimated contracts, fees, and expected payout before you sign.
### Spread
Each market has a **bid price** and an **ask price**:
* The **ask** is what you pay when buying.
* The **bid** is what you receive when selling.
The difference is the spread. Entering and exiting a position can cost money even if the market price has not moved.
## Order Types
Market orders are the main live order type on Predict. A market order attempts to execute at the best available price for the selected side.
* The order quote is based on current price and liquidity.
* If price or liquidity changes before execution, the order may fail or partially fill.
* If less than the full amount executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
* Fees are charged only on the executed portion.
Limit orders let you set a target price and wait for a match.
**Limit orders are temporarily paused.** The Limit tab may appear in the UI, but new limit orders are not currently available.
### Execution Flow
Predict abstracts away most of the execution machinery. In normal use, you only sign the transaction shown in your wallet.
The app checks the selected market route and estimates price, contracts, fees, and payout.
You review the quote and sign the transaction in your wallet.
Jupiter validates the trade and attempts to execute it through the selected route or market integration.
If the trade executes, your position appears in Profile. If it cannot execute, or only partially executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
This process can involve on-chain accounts, route execution, keepers, and market integrations behind the scenes. You do not need to manage those pieces manually.
## Position Management
A **position** represents your holdings in a specific market side.
### Position Data
Your Profile can show the following for each position:
| Field | Description |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Event | The event and market name |
| Size | Number of contracts held |
| Value | Current estimated market value |
| Avg. Price | Average price paid per contract |
| Mark Price | Current reference price per contract |
| PnL | Unrealised profit or loss, with fee display controls where available |
| Payout if right | Estimated payout if your side wins |
| Settlement status | Whether the market is open, closed, claimable, refunded, or settled |
### Closing a Position
You can try to close a position before settlement by clicking **Close**, or **Close All** to exit all eligible positions.
* Closes execute at the current bid, so the spread matters.
* The UI does not currently support partial closes. Closing a position sells all your contracts in that market side.
* A close can fail if the market is closed, liquidity is too low, or the route is temporarily unavailable.
### When You Can Close a Position
Whether you can close depends on the market's current state:
| Market state | Can you close? | Notes |
| ------------------ | -------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Open (Live) | Usually | Close attempts sell at the current bid if liquidity is available |
| Closed | No | Trading has stopped. Wait for settlement |
| Settled (you won) | No | Claim the payout instead |
| Settled (refund) | No | Refund is processed on-chain and reflected in Profile |
| Settled (you lost) | No | The position is final and no action is needed |
Low liquidity can make a position difficult or impossible to close even while the market is open. If a position looks stuck for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup). Some market types, such as [special markets](#special-markets), cannot be closed at all and must be held to resolution.
### Profile Tabs
Your Profile page has three main tabs:
* **Positions**: active positions and claimable or refundable outcomes.
* **Open Orders**: pending orders when that flow is available.
* **History**: completed trades, settlements, claims, and refunds.
## Market Sources and Integrations
Jupiter Predict can surface markets from external prediction market providers and Jupiter-supported market integrations. Examples can include provider markets such as Polymarket or Kalshi, as well as short-duration crypto markets.
### What This Means for Users
* **Market availability**: not every market from every source is available on Jupiter.
* **Action availability**: some markets may be view-only, closed, unavailable in your region, or temporarily unavailable for buys or sells.
* **Resolution rules**: each market follows its own published rules. Read the rules summary before trading.
* **Disputes**: if a source market has a dispute or delayed resolution process, Jupiter follows the final result from that source or integration.
* **Settlement**: some market routes record eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own process and reflect status in Profile.
### Special Markets
During major sporting events, Predict may list **special markets** on individual matches, such as the exact final score or whether the total number of goals is odd or even. At launch these cover **World Cup** matches only.
Special markets work differently from standard Browse markets:
* **They cannot be sold or closed.** Once you buy, you hold the position until the market resolves. There is no early exit.
* **Each purchase is a separate position.** Buying the same special market more than once creates multiple independent positions rather than adding to one.
* **A separate provider sets the odds.** Special markets are not sourced from Kalshi or Polymarket, so their odds can differ from similar markets elsewhere.
* **A \$5 minimum applies per bet**, as with standard markets.
Because special market positions cannot be sold, your funds stay committed until the market resolves, regardless of how the odds move in the meantime.
## Degen Mode
Degen is a section within Jupiter Predict focused on short-duration crypto price markets.
### How It Works
Each Degen market asks whether a token's price will move **Up** or **Down** from a reference price over a defined window.
* The available assets and windows can change.
* The reference price is shown on the market card.
* The current price updates while the market is live.
* If the final price is above the reference, **Up** wins.
* If the final price is below the reference, **Down** wins.
* The market rules determine any edge cases, such as ties or unavailable price data.
Degen markets may use a different route from standard Browse markets, but the basic wallet flow is the same: review the quote, sign, and monitor the position. Settlement actions can vary by route: Profile shows whether the outcome is automatic, claimable, refundable, or final.
## Fee Structure
Fees are charged only on executed trades. The order panel shows estimated fees before you sign.
Fee structure can vary by market and route. Depending on the source, a trade may include:
| Fee type | What it covers |
| --------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Provider or venue fee | Fees charged by the underlying market source, if any |
| Jupiter fee | Fees charged by Jupiter for the Predict trading route |
| Route fee | Fees from swap or liquidity routes used by a specific market |
| Solana network cost | Transaction fees and account rent paid in SOL |
### When Fees Are Not Charged
* If an order does not execute, trading fees are not charged.
* If an order partially executes, fees apply only to the executed portion.
* Claims and refunds do not charge Predict trading fees, though Solana network fees may still apply.
## Settlement Process
Settlement turns a closed market into a final result. Some market routes record an on-chain result, while other routes may settle through their own integration. Most markets settle to YES or NO, but refund and draw outcomes are possible when the rules require them.
Trading stops at the market's scheduled close time or when the source market stops accepting trades.
The market source or integration determines the result according to the market rules.
For some market routes, Jupiter records eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own route and update Profile status.
Your position is marked as claimable, refundable, automatically settled, lost, or otherwise final.
If Profile shows **Claim** or a refund action, follow the prompt. Some outcomes are processed automatically. Losing positions need no action.
### Resolved vs. Claimed
These are separate states:
* **Resolved** means the market result has been finalized and Profile has settlement status. For some market routes, this includes an on-chain result.
* **Claimed** means a winning payout has been credited to your wallet.
* **Refunded** means an eligible refund has been credited to your wallet.
### Pending vs. Resolved
A market can be resolved by its source before it appears settled on Jupiter. This is expected during the relay and settlement update process. Your Profile updates once final status is available.
### When a Market Does Not Resolve as Expected
Most markets settle after their source result is available, but timing is not guaranteed.
Possible reasons for a delay:
* The real-world event has not produced a clear outcome.
* The market source is waiting for an authoritative result.
* A provider, route, or settlement issue needs investigation.
While a market is closed and waiting for settlement, you cannot close the position. If a market remains unresolved for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup).
### Cancelled, Voided, or Refunded Markets
If a market is cancelled, voided, or resolved as refundable, eligible positions can receive a refund after final settlement status is available.
Eligible refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in Profile. Profile shows the refund status and any available action. If the status does not update after the market has clearly resolved as refundable, contact support via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup).
## Leaderboard
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict.
* **Metrics**: PnL, Volume, and Win Rate
* **Time filters**: All Time, Weekly, and Monthly
* **Global stats**: total platform volume and total number of predictions
Traders are identified by truncated wallet address. The Leaderboard is informational and does not affect trading.
## On-Chain Costs
Jupiter Predict runs on Solana. Using it requires a small SOL balance for:
* **Transaction fees**: paid when you sign transactions.
* **Account rent**: temporary deposits required for some on-chain accounts.
Rent is recovered automatically when eligible accounts are closed. These are standard Solana network costs and are separate from Predict trading fees.