> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.jup.ag/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# Prediction Markets
> Trade on real-world events by buying YES or NO contracts on specific outcomes.
## What Is Jupiter Predict?
Jupiter Predict is a prediction market platform built on Solana. It lets you buy contracts that represent a specific outcome of a real-world event. Each contract is a claim on \$1 USDC: if the outcome you bet on is correct, every contract you hold pays \$1 USDC. If the outcome goes the other way, the contracts expire worthless.
The markets themselves come from external providers (currently Kalshi and Polymarket). Jupiter aggregates these markets, handles the on-chain trading, and follows the provider's settlement when an event resolves.
You trade in USDC. You also need a small amount of SOL in your wallet for Solana transaction fees.
## How It Works
Every market on Jupiter Predict is binary: it has exactly two outcomes, YES or NO. You pick a side, buy contracts at the current market price, and either hold until the market settles or sell early.
### Price Equals Implied Probability
Contract prices range from \$0.01 to \$0.99 and reflect the market's view of how likely an outcome is. A YES contract priced at \$0.70 means the market estimates roughly a 70% chance that outcome will happen. The corresponding NO contract would be priced near \$0.30. The YES and NO prices for the same market always add up to approximately \$1.00.
These prices are not guarantees. They reflect what traders are willing to pay at any given moment.
### Profit and Loss
Your profit depends on what you paid for the contract and whether the outcome goes your way.
You buy 10 YES contracts at \$0.30 each. You spend 3 USDC (before fees).
* If the market resolves to YES: each contract pays \$1 USDC. You receive 10 USDC. Profit: 7 USDC, before fees.
* If the market resolves to NO: your contracts expire worthless. You lose your 3 USDC.
You buy 10 NO contracts at \$0.40 each. You spend 4 USDC (before fees).
* If the market resolves to NO: each contract pays \$1 USDC. You receive 10 USDC. Profit: 6 USDC, before fees.
* If the market resolves to YES: your contracts expire worthless. You lose your 4 USDC.
You don't have to wait for settlement. You can sell your contracts at any time before the market closes, at the current market price.
## Browse and Degen
Jupiter Predict has two main sections, both using the same wallet and the same infrastructure.
Events across all categories with longer time horizons: elections, championships, economic decisions, and other real-world events.
Markets are sourced from upstream providers (Kalshi and Polymarket). Each market has a "Rules summary" that explains how the outcome will be determined.
Short-duration micro-bets on crypto price movements. You predict whether a token's price will go **Up** or **Down** over a 5-minute or 15-minute window.
Available tokens include SOL, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, DOGE, and Hyperliquid. Each winning contract pays \$1 USDC.
## Categories
Browse markets are organised into categories. The full list:
| Category | Examples |
| --------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Sports | Championship winners, match results, MVP awards |
| Crypto | Token price targets, network milestones |
| Politics | Election outcomes, nominations, policy decisions |
| Esports | Tournament winners, match outcomes |
| Culture | Awards, entertainment, public figures |
| Economics | Interest rate decisions, macro indicators |
| Tech | Product launches, company milestones |
| Finance | Stock movements, commodity prices |
| Weather | Temperature, climate events |
| Mentions | Predictions on what public figures or media will say (e.g., "What will Trump say in May?") |
You can also filter by **Live** to see only events currently trading, or **All** to see everything.
## Order Types
Jupiter Predict supports two order types:
* **Market order**: executes immediately at the best available price. Built-in slippage tolerance of ±\$0.02 from the displayed price.
* **Limit order**: you set a target price and your order waits to be matched.
**Limit orders are temporarily paused.** The Limit tab is visible in the UI but is currently disabled. The feature will return after a fix is deployed. When live, only **limit buys** are supported (no limit sells), and you can cancel your limit order at any time.
## Fees
Trading fees are charged only on executed trades (both buys and sells). There are no fees when claiming payouts after settlement.
### Two Fee Components
When you trade on Jupiter Predict, you pay two fees:
1. The fee charged by the upstream venue (Kalshi or Polymarket) for executing the trade.
2. A fee charged by Jupiter on top, equal to the venue fee.
In practice, this means the total fee you pay is **twice the venue fee**. For example, if Kalshi charges \$1 in fees on a trade, Jupiter charges another \$1, so your total fee is \$2.
Fee size depends on the contract price and the number of contracts:
* Trades priced near \$0.50 (high uncertainty) carry higher fees.
* Trades priced near \$0.01 or \$0.99 (low uncertainty) carry lower fees.
* Larger trades carry higher absolute fees.
Fees are paid in USDC and rounded up to the nearest cent.
## Settlement and Payouts
When a market reaches its close time, trading stops. The outcome is determined by the upstream provider based on the market's published rules, and Jupiter records the result on-chain.
The settlement flow works like this:
1. The market closes at its predetermined time.
2. The upstream provider (Kalshi or Polymarket) determines and publishes the result.
3. Jupiter picks up the result and records it on-chain. This typically happens **within a few minutes** of the upstream provider resolving the market.
4. Winning positions become claimable in your Profile.
5. You claim your payout: \$1 USDC per winning contract, no fees on claims.
6. Losing positions expire worthless. No action is needed.
A market that has already resolved on Kalshi or Polymarket may show as still pending on Jupiter for a short window. This is expected behaviour during the relay step. Your position becomes claimable once Jupiter records the result on-chain.
Jupiter follows the upstream provider's settlement decision. If a result is disputed, the dispute is handled by the provider, not by Jupiter.
## Additional Features
A personalised feed of recommended events based on your activity.
Public ranking of traders by PnL, Volume, or Win Rate. Filterable by All Time, Weekly, or Monthly.
View your positions, open orders, and trade history. PnL can be displayed with or without fees.
## Risks
Prediction markets carry real financial risk. Read the points below carefully before trading.
* **You can lose your entire position.** If the outcome goes against your prediction, your contracts expire worthless and you lose the full amount you spent.
* **Prices reflect sentiment, not certainty.** A contract priced at \$0.80 doesn't mean the outcome has an 80% chance of happening. It means traders are currently willing to pay 80 cents for it. Markets can be wrong.
* **Liquidity varies.** Some markets may have wide spreads or low volume, which means you may not be able to buy or sell at the price you expect.
* **Slippage applies.** Market orders execute at the best available price, which may differ from the price displayed when you placed the order.
* **Resolution depends on external providers.** Jupiter does not decide outcomes. The upstream provider (Kalshi or Polymarket) determines the result based on their published rules.
* **Settlement is not instant.** There is typically a short delay between the upstream resolution and the on-chain settlement on Jupiter. If a market is affected by an issue on Jupiter's or the provider's side, it may take longer.
* **Regulatory restrictions apply.** Prediction markets may be restricted or regulated in your jurisdiction. US and South Korea IPs are blocked from accessing Jupiter Predict.
## What You Need
A wallet such as Phantom or Solflare, connected to Jupiter.
Used for all trades and payouts on Predict.
For Solana transaction fees and account rent. Rent is recovered automatically when orders and positions are closed.