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General

Jupiter Predict is a prediction market platform on Solana. It lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying YES or NO contracts. If your prediction is correct, each winning contract pays $1 USDC. If your prediction is wrong, the contract expires worthless.
Jupiter Predict lists events across Sports, Crypto, Politics, Esports, Culture, Economics, Tech, Finance, Weather, and Mentions. The available events depend on what the upstream providers (Kalshi and Polymarket) offer.
Mentions is a category that groups markets predicting what public figures or media will say. Examples include “What will Trump say in May?” or “What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week?”. Each market lists possible words, names, or topics, and you bet on whether they will be mentioned.
Browse lists events across all categories, typically with longer time horizons (elections, championships, economic decisions). Markets are sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket.Degen focuses on short-duration micro-bets on crypto price movements. You predict whether a token’s price will go Up or Down within a 5-minute or 15-minute window.Both sections use the same wallet, the same USDC token, and the same contract logic ($1 payout per winning contract).
Jupiter does not create markets directly. Markets are sourced from upstream providers, currently Kalshi and Polymarket. Jupiter aggregates these markets, handles the on-chain trading, and follows the provider’s settlement when an event resolves.
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict. You can sort by PnL, Volume, or Win Rate, and filter by time period (All Time, Weekly, Monthly). Traders are identified by their truncated wallet address.

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Trading

All trading and payouts on Jupiter Predict use USDC. You also need a small amount of SOL in your wallet to cover Solana transaction fees and account rent.
A contract is a claim on $1 USDC tied to one side of a market (YES or NO). If the market resolves in favour of your side, each contract pays $1 USDC. If the market resolves against you, the contract is worth $0.
The price reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome. A YES contract at $0.70 means traders currently estimate roughly a 70% chance of YES. The YES and NO prices for the same market add up to approximately $1.00.Prices are set by supply and demand. They are not guaranteed probabilities.
A Market order executes immediately at the best available price. It has a built-in slippage tolerance of ±$0.02. If the price moves beyond that range, the order doesn’t execute and your USDC is returned.A Limit order lets you set a specific price. Your order waits on the book until the market reaches your price.
Limit orders are temporarily paused. The Limit tab is visible in the UI but the feature is currently disabled. It will return once a fix is deployed.When the feature is live, only limit buys are supported (no limit sells), and you can cancel a limit order at any time before it is matched.
If a market order is not filled within 2 minutes (typically because the market moved beyond the ±$0.02 slippage tolerance), your full USDC amount is returned to your wallet. There is no fee for unfilled orders.
No. The UI does not support partial closes. Clicking Close on a position sells all your contracts in that market side at the current market price.
Yes, but only while the market is in the Open (Live) state. Once trading stops (the market is “Closed” and awaiting settlement), you can no longer sell. You must wait for the market to resolve.While the market is open, your contracts are sold at the current market bid price. There is always a spread between buy and sell prices, so closing a position has a cost even if the underlying probability hasn’t moved.
The most common reasons:
  • The market has reached its close time. Trading has stopped and the market is awaiting settlement.
  • Liquidity is too low. There aren’t enough resting orders to fill your close at the displayed price.
  • A temporary issue with the matching engine or the upstream provider.
If you expect the market to still be open and you can’t close, raise a ticket via Discord and the team will look into it.
Yes. Market orders have a built-in slippage tolerance of ±$0.02 from the displayed price. If the market moves beyond this range before your order executes, the order is cancelled and your USDC is returned.

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Fees

Trading fees are charged only on executed trades (buys and sells). There are no fees on claims.Your total fee on a trade is made of two components:
  1. The fee charged by the upstream venue (Kalshi or Polymarket).
  2. A fee charged by Jupiter on top, equal to the venue fee.
In practice, your total fee is twice the venue fee. If the venue fee is $1, Jupiter charges another $1, so you pay $2 in total.
The Jupiter fee covers the infrastructure that aggregates markets from multiple providers, runs the on-chain order matching, and provides the trading interface. The venue fee covers the upstream market operator (Kalshi or Polymarket).
Fee size depends on the contract price and the number of contracts:
  • Trades priced near $0.50 (high uncertainty) carry higher fees.
  • Trades priced near $0.01 or $0.99 (near-certain outcomes) carry lower fees.
  • Larger trades carry higher absolute fees.
Fees are paid in USDC and rounded up to the nearest cent.
No. Claiming your winnings after a market settles is free.
No. Fees are only charged on executed trades.

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Settlement

Each market has a “Rules summary” that defines how the outcome will be determined. The upstream provider (Kalshi or Polymarket) evaluates the result based on these rules and publishes it. Jupiter then records the result on-chain.
Disputes are handled by the upstream provider, not by Jupiter. Jupiter follows the settlement result provided by the venue.
Settlement has three distinct stages:
  1. The upstream provider (Kalshi or Polymarket) determines the result on their side.
  2. Jupiter records the result on-chain, typically within a few minutes of the upstream resolution.
  3. The payout is sent to your wallet. You can claim manually at any time, and if you don’t claim within 24 hours, Jupiter automatically claims on your behalf.
Resolved means Jupiter has recorded the market’s outcome on-chain. Your position is now either claimable (you won) or lost.Claimed means the payout has been credited to your wallet, either because you claimed manually or because Jupiter auto-claimed for you after 24 hours.
You can claim at any time after your position becomes claimable. If you don’t claim within 24 hours, Jupiter automatically claims for you. You won’t lose your payout if you forget to claim.
Most markets resolve within a few minutes of their upstream resolution. Occasionally, a market may take longer because the real-world event isn’t clear yet, the upstream provider is waiting on an authoritative source, or there’s an issue on Jupiter’s or the provider’s side.There is no fixed maximum delay. A bugged market may stay unresolved until the underlying issue is fixed. While in this state, you cannot close your position. If a market remains unresolved for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via Discord.
If the upstream provider cancels or voids a market, affected positions are refunded. Refunds are currently processed manually: reach out via Discord and the team will refund your USDC. An automatic refund feature is in development.
This is expected behaviour. There is a short window between upstream resolution and on-chain recording on Jupiter (typically a few minutes). Once Jupiter records the result, your position becomes claimable.
If a market resolves against your position, your contracts expire worthless. You receive no payout and the position is marked as lost. No action is needed on your part.

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Risks

Yes. If the market resolves against your prediction, your contracts expire worthless and you lose the full amount you spent on them. Only trade amounts you can afford to lose.
The main risks include: losing your full position if the outcome goes against you, low liquidity in some markets (which can make it hard to exit at a fair price), slippage on market orders, settlement delays, and reliance on external providers for resolution. See the Risks section in the Overview for a full breakdown.
The regulatory status of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction. Jupiter sources markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated in the US) and Polymarket. Jupiter itself does not operate as a regulated exchange. Users are responsible for understanding the legal implications of using prediction markets in their region.

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Account and Access

Yes, a small amount. Solana charges a transaction fee (about 0.000005 SOL per transaction) and creating accounts on-chain requires a rent deposit. The rent is recovered automatically when the account is closed (orders close after they fill or expire, positions close when claimed or marked as lost).
Jupiter Predict restricts access from US and South Korea IP addresses. Availability in other regions depends on local regulations. Jupiter does not provide legal advice on whether prediction market trading is permitted in your jurisdiction.
Click the Profile tab at the top of the Predict page. You’ll find three tabs: Positions (active holdings), Open Orders (pending limit orders), and History (past trades, settlements, and claims).