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General

Jupiter Predict is a prediction market experience on Solana. It lets you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying YES or NO contracts. If your side wins, each winning contract pays $1 worth of the market’s settlement asset. If your side loses, the contract expires worthless.
Jupiter Predict lists events across categories like Sports, Crypto, Politics, Esports, Culture, Economics, Tech, Finance, Weather, and Mentions. The available categories and markets can change as new events are added or removed.
Mentions groups markets that predict what public figures, publications, or media will say. Each market lists words, names, or topics, and you trade on whether they will be mentioned according to the market’s rules.
Browse lists events across many categories, often with longer time horizons.Degen focuses on short-duration crypto price markets. You predict whether a token’s price will move Up or Down over a fixed window.Both sections use the same basic wallet flow: review a quote, sign, and monitor the position. Settlement actions can vary by route: Profile shows whether the outcome is automatic, claimable, refundable, or final.
Jupiter Predict can surface markets from external prediction market providers and Jupiter-supported market integrations. Availability, trading actions, liquidity, and settlement timing can differ by market.
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict. You can sort by PnL, Volume, or Win Rate, and filter by time period. Traders are identified by truncated wallet address.

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Trading

Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token can depend on the selected market and route.The order panel shows the token, estimated contracts, fees, and expected payout before you sign. You also need a small amount of SOL for Solana network fees.
A contract is a claim tied to one side of a market. A winning contract pays $1 worth of the market’s settlement asset. A losing contract pays $0.
The price reflects what traders are currently willing to pay for that side. A YES contract at $0.70 means the market is pricing YES at about 70 cents.Prices are set by supply and demand. They are not guaranteed probabilities.
Yes. Predict enforces order minimums, and some short-duration markets can also have maximum order sizes. The app shows the current limits in the order panel.
A Market order attempts to execute at the best available price for the selected side.A Limit order lets you set a target price and wait for a match.
Limit orders are temporarily paused. The Limit tab may appear in the UI, but new limit orders are not currently available.
If an order cannot execute, or only partially executes, unused funds are returned automatically. Trading fees are charged only on the executed portion.
Common reasons include:
  • The market is closed, upcoming, or view-only.
  • Liquidity is too low for the requested amount.
  • The selected route is temporarily unavailable.
  • Trading is unavailable in your region.
  • The amount is below the minimum or above the market’s maximum.
No. The UI does not support partial closes. Clicking Close sells all contracts in that market side.
Usually, yes, while the market is open and there is enough liquidity. Once trading stops and the market is closed for settlement, you can no longer sell.Sells execute at the bid price, so closing a position has a spread cost.
The most common reasons:
  • The market has reached its close time.
  • Liquidity is too low to fill the close.
  • The route or market integration is temporarily unavailable.
  • The position is already waiting for claim, refund, or final settlement.
If you expect the market to still be open and the position looks stuck, raise a ticket via Discord.
Yes. Quotes include price protection. If the price or liquidity changes too much before execution, the order may fail instead of executing at a much worse price. Any unused funds are returned automatically.

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Fees

Fees are shown in the order quote before you sign. They are charged only on executed trades.Depending on the market and route, a trade may include provider fees, Jupiter fees, route fees, and normal Solana network costs.
Predict markets can use different sources and routes. A provider market, a short-duration crypto market, and a swap-routed trade may not have the same fee structure.
Predict does not charge trading fees on claims or refunds. Solana network fees may still apply when you sign a transaction.
No trading fee is charged on the unfilled portion of an order.

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Settlement

Each market has rules that define how the outcome is determined. The market source or integration determines the result according to those rules. Some market routes record eligible results on-chain, while other integrations may settle through their own route.
Disputes are handled by the market’s source or resolution process. Jupiter records eligible on-chain results and does not independently rewrite market outcomes.
Settlement depends on the market. The real-world event must conclude, the market source must determine the result, and final status must be available in Profile.Some markets settle quickly after the source result is available. Others can take longer if the result is delayed, disputed, or needs investigation.
Resolved means the market result has been finalized and Profile has settlement status. For some market routes, this includes an on-chain result.Claimed means a winning payout has been credited to your wallet.Refunded means an eligible refund has been credited to your wallet.
Use your Profile as the source of truth. If a position is claimable, click Claim and sign in your wallet.A claimable payout does not disappear just because you did not click immediately, but it is best to claim once the action appears.
A market can remain pending if the real-world outcome is unclear, the source is waiting for an authoritative result, or the settlement route needs investigation.While the market is closed and waiting for settlement, you cannot close the position. If a market remains unresolved for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via Discord.
If a market is cancelled, voided, or resolved as refundable, eligible positions can receive a refund after final settlement status is available. Eligible refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in Profile. Profile shows the refund status and any available action.
There can be a delay between source resolution and final status updating on Jupiter. Once settlement status is available, your Profile updates to show claim, refund, lost, or final status.
If a market resolves against your position, your contracts expire worthless. You receive no payout and no action is needed.

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Risks

Yes. If the market resolves against your prediction, your contracts expire worthless and you can lose the full amount spent on them.
The main risks include losing your full position, low liquidity, wide spreads, slippage, route failures, settlement delays, source disputes, stablecoin risks, and regulatory restrictions. See the Risks section in the Overview for more detail.
The regulatory status of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction. Users are responsible for understanding whether prediction market trading is permitted where they are located.

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Account and Access

Yes, a small amount. Solana charges transaction fees, and some on-chain accounts require temporary rent deposits. Rent is recovered automatically when eligible accounts are closed.
Trading is unavailable in some regions, including the United States and South Korea. Availability in other regions depends on local regulations. Jupiter does not provide legal advice.
Click Profile at the top of the Predict page. You can view active positions, open orders when available, history, claims, and refunds.