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General

Jupiter Predict is a prediction market on Solana. You trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying YES or NO contracts, or Up or Down on short price markets. If your side wins, each winning contract pays $1 worth of the market’s settlement asset. If your side loses, the contract expires worthless. See the Overview.
Jupiter Predict lists events across Sports, Crypto, Politics, Esports, Culture, Economics, Tech, Finance, Weather, and Mentions. The available categories and markets change as events are added or removed. See Browse.
Mentions groups markets on what public figures, publications, or media will say. Each market lists words, names, or topics, and you trade on whether they will be mentioned according to the market’s rules.
Browse lists events across many categories, often with longer time horizons. Degen holds 5- and 15-minute Up or Down markets on crypto prices and SpaceX. The Arcade runs one-minute BTC and SOL Up or Down rounds paid from a shared pool rather than an order book, with a 1% fee taken from winning payouts. See Degen and Arcade.
Jupiter Predict surfaces markets from external prediction market providers, mainly Polymarket, and from Jupiter-supported market integrations. Availability, trading actions, liquidity, and settlement timing can differ by market. See Where do the markets come from?
No. Predict has no market creation flow, so you can only trade markets that are already listed. New markets are added by the external providers and integrations that Predict sources from, not by Jupiter, so a market cannot be opened on request through support either.
Clans are trader groups that compete in a weekly PnL race: every trade a member makes counts toward the clan’s weekly total. You can create a clan, join one with an invitation or invite link, or send a request to join from the clan directory and wait for the leader’s approval. A clan holds at most 50 members. See Clans.
After you join a clan, your trades take about an hour to appear in the clan’s Trades feed. Check again later; if they still do not show after an hour, contact support with your wallet address and the clan name. See What does a clan page show?
Yes. Each week, members of the three best qualified clans earn cash and Gacha packs, and the members of one losing clan earn Gacha packs as a consolation prize. To earn, a member needs at least $500 of Predict volume and a positive PnL for the week; eligible members are ranked by PnL within the clan, and the reward tiers cover ranks #1 to #10. Cash currently goes to the top 3 members of the Champion clan, and the clan leaderboard shows the current amounts. Rewards are approved after the week ends (Monday 00:00 UTC): Gacha packs are gifted to your wallet, and the Rewards tab of the Clans page shows each reward as Pending or Sent. If no clan qualifies, there is no winner that week. See Do clans win rewards? and How are clan rewards paid?
The leaderboard is a public ranking of Jupiter Predict traders by PnL, volume, or win rate, over all time, the current week, or the current month. Traders appear by their username, or by truncated wallet address when they have none, and each row opens the trader’s profile. See Leaderboard.
Open the trader’s profile, from the leaderboard or a profile card in comments, and click Follow. You can also follow from the follow icon on a trade in the Activity feed. Following is saved with a wallet message signature, not a transaction. See How do I follow a trader?

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Trading

Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token depends on the market and route, and the order form shows the token you pay with. Once you enter an amount, it shows the size, the number of contracts, and the expected payout, with trading fees included. You also need a small amount of SOL for Solana network fees.
The price reflects what traders are currently willing to pay for that side. A YES contract at $0.70 means the market is pricing YES at about 70 cents. Prices are set by supply and demand and are not guaranteed probabilities. You can switch the display between cents and a decimal odds-style multiplier in the settings menu (the sort icon); the setting is saved in your browser. See How do I read a contract price?
Yes. Polymarket-sourced markets have a $5 minimum order, Jupiter Forecast markets a $5 minimum and $1,000 maximum, sports ticket markets a $4 minimum and $3,000 maximum per ticket, and Arcade rounds 1 to 1,000 USDC per entry. These are the current values; the order form shows the limits that apply. See What are the order limits?
No. Jupiter Predict does not support parlay or combo bets: each position is taken on a single market outcome. You can hold positions in as many separate markets as you like, but they settle independently.
A market order executes right away at the best available price for the selected side. A limit order waits for your target price. Limit orders are available as limit buys on Polymarket-sourced markets: switch the order form to the Limit tab and set your price. Limit sells are disabled, and Jupiter Forecast and sports ticket markets are market-order only. You can cancel an open limit order from the Open Orders tab of your profile before it is matched. See Which order types can I use?
Quick Buy buys in one tap, skipping the order form. Turn it on from the lightning icon with an amount on Browse and Degen, and set the amount and the token to pay with (USDC, SOL, or JupUSD). With Quick Buy on, a Yes, No, Up, or Down button places an order for that amount right away, after your wallet signature. It is off by default. See How does Quick Buy work?
In the Activity feed’s Large bets tab, or on a large-bet slide of the Trending feed, click Copy bet. It buys the same side of the same market at the current price, not at the original bet’s price: in one tap with Quick Buy on, or through the order form otherwise. A bet on a market that is no longer open shows Closed instead. See How do I copy a large bet?
If an order cannot execute, or only partially executes, unused funds are returned automatically. Trading fees are charged only on the executed portion.
Yes. Quotes include price protection. If the price or liquidity changes too much before execution, the order fails instead of executing at a much worse price, and unused funds are returned automatically.
Common reasons include:
  • The market is closed, upcoming, or view-only.
  • Liquidity is too low for the requested amount.
  • The market’s route or provider is temporarily unavailable. A warning banner shows when a provider has trading problems.
  • Trading is unavailable in your region.
  • The amount is below the minimum or above the market’s maximum.
Usually, yes, while the market is open and there is enough liquidity: click Close on the position in your profile. You can sell part of it (25%, 50%, 75%, or a custom dollar amount) or all of it with Max. Sells execute at the bid price, so closing has a spread cost. Sports ticket markets cannot be sold and must be held to resolution. See How do I close a position before the market ends?
The most common reasons:
  • The market has reached its close time.
  • Liquidity is too low to fill the close.
  • The route or market integration is temporarily unavailable.
  • The position is already waiting for a claim, a refund, or final settlement.
  • The position is a sports ticket, which must be held to resolution.
If you expect the market to still be open and the position looks stuck, raise a ticket via Discord.
Check the bet button: Below minimum or Above maximum means your amount is outside the per-entry limits (currently 1 to 1,000 USDC), Insufficient USDC means your balance does not cover the bet, and Couldn’t load limits means the page needs a reload. Up and Down are disabled once the countdown ends and the round locks, until the next round opens, and while a previous bet is still being sent. Trading is also unavailable in some regions. See Why is my Arcade bet blocked?

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Fees

It depends on the market type. Polymarket-sourced Browse markets charge twice the Polymarket fee on that market. Sports ticket markets and Jupiter Forecast markets currently charge no trading fee. Arcade rounds take 1% of a winning payout. Fees are included in the order quote shown before you sign, charged only on executed trades, and rounded up to the nearest cent. Solana network costs are separate and paid in SOL. See Fees.
On Polymarket-sourced markets, the fee scales with the contract price, the number of contracts, and how uncertain the outcome is. Trades priced closer to $0.50 are more uncertain, so fees are slightly higher. Trades priced closer to $0.00 or $1.00 are more certain, so fees are lower. Degen and other routes can use different fee structures.
Predict does not charge trading fees on claims or refunds. Solana network fees may still apply when you sign a transaction.
No trading fee is charged on the unfilled portion of an order.

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Settlement

Each market has rules, shown in the rules summary on its page, that define how the outcome is determined. The market source or integration determines the result according to those rules. Some market routes record eligible results on-chain, while other integrations settle through their own route.
Disputes are handled by the market’s source or resolution process. Jupiter follows the final result from that source and does not independently rewrite market outcomes.
It depends on the market. The real-world event must conclude, the market source must determine the result, and the final status must reach your profile. Some markets settle quickly after the source result is available; others take longer if the result is delayed, disputed, or needs investigation. Jupiter Forecast and Arcade payouts are credited automatically shortly after the window or round ends.
Your profile is the source of truth. If a position is claimable, click Claim in the Positions tab and sign in your wallet; Claim All claims every claimable position at once. A claimable payout does not disappear if you do not click immediately, but it is best to claim once the action appears. Some routes, such as Jupiter Forecast markets and the Arcade, pay out automatically. See How do I claim my winnings?
Resolved means the market result is final and your profile has its settlement status. For some market routes, this includes an on-chain result. Claimed means a winning payout has been credited to your wallet. Refunded means an eligible refund has been credited to your wallet.
There can be a delay between source resolution and the final status updating on Jupiter. Once settlement status is available, your profile updates to show a claim, refund, lost, or final status. If a market stays unresolved for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via Discord.
If a market is canceled, voided, or resolved as refundable, eligible positions can receive a refund once the final settlement status is available. Refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in your profile, which shows the refund status and any available action.
If a market resolves against your position, your contracts expire worthless. You receive no payout and no action is needed.

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Risks

Yes. If the market resolves against your prediction, your contracts expire worthless and you can lose the full amount spent on them.
The main risks include losing your full position, low liquidity, wide spreads, slippage, route failures, settlement delays, source disputes, stablecoin risks, and regulatory restrictions. See What are the risks?
The regulatory status of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction. You are responsible for understanding whether prediction market trading is permitted where you are located.

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Account and support

Trading on Jupiter Predict is unavailable in some regions, and the Jupiter Mobile app restricts more regions than the web, so what you can access can differ between the two. Availability depends on local regulations. Jupiter does not confirm whether trading is permitted where you are and does not provide legal advice. The Jupiter Terms of Use list the prohibited localities and forbid using a VPN to get around them. See the Terms of Use.
Yes, a small amount. Solana charges transaction fees, and some on-chain accounts require temporary rent deposits. Rent is recovered automatically when eligible accounts are closed.
Click Profile in the Predict navigation. The Positions, Open Orders, and History tabs show your active positions, pending limit orders, and past trades, settlements, claims, and refunds, with your realized PnL, win rate, and volume above them. See Profile.
Arcade rounds have no event URL. Each round is an on-chain account: the round time on a round card is an explorer link to it, and the Arcade History page shows each past round’s shortened address as an explorer link, with the date and time. Give that address, or the explorer link, to support together with your wallet address.
Raise tickets via Discord and include enough detail for the team to find your trade:
  • Your wallet address: the full address you traded with, not the truncated form shown in the app.
  • The event page URL: every event has its own address, for example jup.ag/prediction/.... Open the event and copy the URL from the browser address bar; its last segment is the market’s identifier.
  • For an Arcade round, which has no event URL: the round’s address, shown as a shortened explorer link in the Arcade History page (or by clicking the round time on the round card), and the settlement transaction link from the same row.
  • What happened and when: the action you took, the result you expected, and the approximate time with your timezone.
  • The transaction signature, if the issue concerns a specific order. You can find it in your wallet’s activity history.
  • The position details as shown in the Positions tab: event, side, size, and average price.
The event URL and your wallet address together identify a position, so include both even when the issue seems obvious.