Events and Markets
An event is a real-world occurrence with a determinable outcome. For example: “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” or “UEFA Champions League Winner.” Each event contains one or more markets. Each market represents a specific outcome within the event and is binary: YES or NO. For example, the event “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” may contain separate markets for J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Tucker Carlson, and others. Each of these is an independent binary market. You can buy YES on J.D. Vance without taking a position on any other candidate.Market States
A market goes through the following states:- Upcoming: the market is visible but trading has not started yet. The UI shows a countdown (e.g., “Begins in 14d 23h”).
- Open (Live): the market is actively trading. Users can place buy and sell orders.
- Closed: trading has stopped. The market is awaiting settlement.
- Settled: the result has been determined and recorded on-chain. Winning positions are claimable.
Multi-Outcome Events
Some events have many possible outcomes (e.g., 5+ candidates in an election, 10+ teams in a championship). Each outcome is a separate market. You can trade on one or more of them independently. The probabilities across all markets within an event may not sum to exactly 100% at any given time, because each market trades independently and has its own spread.Contracts
A contract is a financial claim. Each contract is tied to one side of one market (YES or NO).- A winning contract pays $1 USDC when the market settles in its favor.
- A losing contract pays $0 and expires worthless.
Prices are driven by supply and demand. They reflect collective market sentiment, not a guaranteed probability.
Spread
Each market has a bid price (what buyers are willing to pay) and an ask price (what sellers want). The difference is the spread. When you buy, you pay the ask. When you sell, you receive the bid. This means there is always a cost to entering and exiting a position, even if the price hasn’t moved.Placing Orders
Market Orders
A market order executes immediately at the best available price.- Built-in slippage tolerance: ±$0.02 from the displayed price.
- If the market moves beyond this range before execution, the order does not fill.
- USDC is reserved from your wallet when you place the order.
- If the order is not filled within 2 minutes, the full amount is returned to your wallet.
- If only partially filled, unused USDC is returned after the order closes.
Limit Orders
A limit order lets you set a target price. Your order is placed on the book and waits to be matched at your specified price or better.Order Execution On-Chain
Each order involves three on-chain transactions:Fill Order
Jupiter’s keeper system picks up the order and executes it against the upstream provider’s orderbook.
Position Management
A position represents your holdings in a specific market side (YES or NO).Position Data
Your profile shows the following for each position:| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Event | The event and market name |
| Total Size | Number of contracts held |
| Value | Current market value of the position (contracts × current price) |
| Avg. Price | Average price you paid per contract |
| Mark Price | Current market price per contract |
| PNL | Unrealized profit or loss. Can be toggled to include or exclude fees |
| Payout if right | Total payout if the market resolves in your favor ($1 × contracts) |
| Est. Settlement Time | Estimated time when the market will settle |
Closing a Position
You can close your position before settlement by selling your contracts at the current market price.- Sells execute at the bid price (not the mid-price), so there is a spread cost.
- The built-in ±$0.02 slippage tolerance applies to sells as well.
Profile Tabs
Your Profile page has three tabs:- Positions: all active positions with live PnL data
- Open Orders: orders that have been placed but not yet filled (relevant for limit orders)
- History: completed trades, settlements, and claims
Upstream Providers
Jupiter Predict does not create or manage markets directly. Markets are sourced from upstream providers, currently Kalshi and Polymarket.What This Means for Users
- Market availability: Jupiter lists a selection of markets from each provider. Not every market available on Kalshi or Polymarket is necessarily available on Jupiter.
- Resolution rules: each market’s outcome is determined by the provider, following the rules described in the “Rules summary” section on the market page. Jupiter follows the provider’s settlement result.
- Dispute resolution: if an outcome is disputed, the dispute is handled by the upstream provider. Jupiter does not independently resolve disputes.
- Fee model: fees are charged by the venue (the provider). Different providers may have different fee structures.
Provider-Agnostic Architecture
Jupiter’s architecture is designed to be provider-agnostic. From a user perspective, all markets look and behave the same regardless of which provider they come from. The underlying provider is not prominently displayed in the UI, though it may be identifiable from the market URL or metadata.Degen Mode
Degen is a section within Jupiter Predict focused on short-duration micro-bets on crypto prices.How It Works
Each Degen market asks a simple question: will the price of a token go Up or Down from a reference price (“Price to beat”) within a defined time window?- Time windows: 5 minutes or 15 minutes
- Available tokens: SOL, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, DOGE, Hyperliquid, and others
- The “Price to beat” is the token’s price at the start of the window
- The “Current price” updates in real time
- If the token’s price at the end of the window is above the reference, Up wins
- If the token’s price at the end of the window is below the reference, Down wins
Fee Structure
Fees are charged only on executed trades (buying or selling contracts). There are no fees on claims.How Fees Are Calculated
Fees depend on three factors:- Contract price: trades closer to 0.01 or $0.99 (near-certain outcomes) have lower fees.
- Number of contracts: larger trades incur higher total fees.
- Venue: fees are charged by the upstream provider, not by Jupiter.
Fee examples (Kalshi markets)
Fee examples (Kalshi markets)
| Price per Contract | Fee (1 Contract) | Fee (100 Contracts) |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | $0.01 | $0.07 |
| $0.05 | $0.01 | $0.34 |
| $0.10 | $0.01 | $0.63 |
| $0.15 | $0.01 | $0.90 |
| $0.20 | $0.02 | $1.12 |
| $0.25 | $0.02 | $1.32 |
| $0.30 | $0.02 | $1.47 |
| $0.35 | $0.02 | $1.60 |
| $0.40 | $0.02 | $1.68 |
When Fees Are Not Charged
- Placing an order that doesn’t execute (no fill) incurs no fee.
- Claiming payouts after settlement incurs no fee.
- Limit orders that sit on the book (resting orders) do not incur a fee until they execute.
Settlement Process
Result Determined
The upstream provider determines the outcome based on the market’s published rules.
Winning Positions Become Claimable
If you hold winning contracts, your position shows as claimable in your Profile.
Leaderboard
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict.- Metrics: PnL (USD), Volume (USD), Win Rate
- Time filters: All Time, Weekly, Monthly
- Global stats: total platform volume and total number of predictions are displayed at the top
On-Chain Costs
Jupiter Predict runs on Solana. Using it requires a small SOL balance for:- Transaction fees: approximately 0.000005 SOL per transaction. Since each order involves 3 transactions, this amounts to roughly 0.000015 SOL per trade.
- Account rent: creating position and order accounts on Solana requires a small rent deposit (approximately 0.002 SOL per account). This rent is recovered when the account is closed (after the order fills or the position is settled/closed).