Events and Markets
An event is a real-world occurrence with a determinable outcome. For example: “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” or “UEFA Champions League Winner.” Each event contains one or more markets. Each market represents a specific outcome within the event and is usually binary: YES or NO. For example, an election event can contain separate markets for several candidates. Each candidate market trades independently. You can buy YES on one candidate without taking a position on any other candidate.Multi-Outcome Events
Events with many possible outcomes are displayed with the top outcomes visible by default. Click Show More to drill down and see additional sub-markets. The probabilities across all sub-markets within a multi-outcome event do not always sum to exactly 100%. Each sub-market can have its own liquidity, spread, and price history.Sports Match Markets
A single sports match can carry several market types, grouped on one event page. On a football match, for example:- To Advance: which team goes through to the next round. Runs to the full result, including extra time, penalties, or an official ruling, as set out in the market rules.
- Moneyline: the three-way regulation-time result (either team or the draw), each side tradeable YES or NO. The order buttons show the payout per contract (e.g. “$1 pays 2.46”).
- Both Teams to Score: yes or no.
- Double Chance: cover two of the three regulation-time outcomes in a single position.
- Spreads: back a team at a goal handicap, with a selectable line (e.g. 0, 0.5, 1).
- Totals: over or under on total goals, with a selectable line (e.g. 2, 2.5, 3).
- Odd / Even and Total Goals ranges (e.g. 0-1, 2-3, 4-6, 7+).
- Exact Score: see Special Markets.
- REG TIME vs FULL TIME badges: REG TIME markets settle on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. FULL TIME markets settle on the final outcome, including extra time and penalties (To Advance is a FULL TIME market). The exact treatment is always in the market’s rules summary.
- Push rules are displayed on the market: on integer Spreads and Totals lines, a push (the spread-adjusted score is level, or the final total equals the line) resolves as a refund of the stake. The applicable rule is shown on each market group (e.g. “Draw = refund”, “Exactly 2 = refund”). Other market types (Double Chance, Odd / Even, Exact Score) do not use lines and have no push outcome.
- No fees label: the sportsbook-style groups (Double Chance, Spreads, Totals, Odd / Even, Total Goals ranges, Exact Score) currently charge no trading fees. These are ticket markets: market orders only, held to settlement with no early sell.
Comments
Each event page includes a comments section: you can post comments on an event, like other traders’ comments, and delete your own.Market States
A market moves through several states from creation to settlement:Upcoming
The market is visible but trading has not started yet. The UI may show a countdown.
Open (Live)
The market is actively trading. Buy and sell actions are available when liquidity and routing support them. Live timed markets show a compact countdown on their card, with an urgency state in the final 30 seconds.
Closed
Trading has stopped. The market is waiting for the result to be determined and recorded.
Settled
The result is final. Profile shows claim, refund, automatic, lost, or final status.
Contracts
A contract is a financial claim tied to one side of one market.- A winning contract pays $1 worth of the market’s settlement asset.
- A losing contract pays $0 and expires worthless.
- Some markets can resolve to a refund or draw outcome if the market rules require it.
Funding and Settlement Assets
Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token can depend on the market and route. In some flows, Jupiter may route your input into the market’s settlement asset before the order is placed. The order panel shows the token you pay with and, once you enter an amount, the quote details: size, number of contracts, expected payout, and any estimated refund. Trading fees are included in the quote rather than shown as a separate line; see Fee Structure for how they are calculated.Spread
Each market has a bid price and an ask price:- The ask is what you pay when buying.
- The bid is what you receive when selling.
Order Types
- Market Orders
- Limit Orders
Market orders are the main live order type on Predict. A market order attempts to execute at the best available price for the selected side.
- The order quote is based on current price and liquidity.
- If price or liquidity changes before execution, the order may fail or partially fill.
- If less than the full amount executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
- Fees are charged only on the executed portion.
Execution Flow
Predict abstracts away most of the execution machinery. In normal use, you only sign the transaction shown in your wallet.1
Quote
The app checks the selected market route and estimates price, contracts, fees, and payout.
2
Sign
You review the quote and sign the transaction in your wallet.
3
Execute
Jupiter validates the trade and attempts to execute it through the selected route or market integration.
4
Update position
If the trade executes, your position appears in Profile. If it cannot execute, or only partially executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
Position Management
A position represents your holdings in a specific market side.Position Data
Your Profile can show the following for each position:Closing a Position
You can try to close a position before settlement by clicking Close, or Close All to exit all eligible positions.- Closes execute at the current bid, so the spread matters.
- You can close a position partially or in full: the Close panel offers percentage presets (25%, 50%, 75%, or Max) or a custom dollar amount. Choosing Max sells the entire position regardless of price moves.
- A close can fail if the market is closed, liquidity is too low, or the route is temporarily unavailable.
When You Can Close a Position
Whether you can close depends on the market’s current state:Profile Tabs
Your Profile page has three main tabs:- Positions: active positions and claimable or refundable outcomes.
- Open Orders: pending orders when that flow is available.
- History: completed trades, settlements, claims, and refunds.
Market Sources and Integrations
Jupiter Predict can surface markets from external prediction market providers and Jupiter-supported market integrations. Browse markets are currently sourced from Polymarket, alongside short-duration crypto markets and other Jupiter-supported integrations.What This Means for Users
- Market availability: not every market from every source is available on Jupiter.
- Action availability: some markets may be view-only, closed, unavailable in your region, or temporarily unavailable for buys or sells.
- Resolution rules: each market follows its own published rules. Read the rules summary before trading.
- Disputes: if a source market has a dispute or delayed resolution process, Jupiter follows the final result from that source or integration.
- Settlement: some market routes record eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own process and reflect status in Profile.
Order Behaviour by Market Source
Special Markets
During major sporting events, Predict lists sportsbook-style ticket markets on individual matches: Double Chance, Spreads, Totals, Odd / Even, Total Goals ranges, and Exact Score (see Sports Match Markets). Ticket markets work differently from standard Browse markets:- No early sell. Once you buy a ticket, you hold it until the market resolves and pays out at settlement. There is no orderbook and no early exit.
- Market orders only. A Limit tab may appear on the form but is disabled on these markets.
- Each purchase is a separate ticket. Buying the same market more than once creates multiple independent positions rather than adding to one.
- A separate sportsbook provider sets the odds, so they can differ from similar markets elsewhere.
- Stake limits: minimum $4 and maximum $3,000 per ticket. The $5 minimum order applies to the normal order path (Polymarket and Jupiter Forecast markets), not to tickets.
- Currently no trading fees on ticket markets.
Degen Mode
Degen is a section within Jupiter Predict focused on short-duration Up or Down price markets. It has two tabs: Crypto and Stocks. The Crypto tab currently lists 5-minute and 15-minute Up or Down markets on BTC, SOL, ETH, XRP, BNB, DOGE, and HYPE, each grouped under a live price chart; the Stocks tab hosts SPCX (SpaceX). Filter chips narrow the list by window (All | 5m | 15m) or by asset, and a Live filter shows the markets currently running.How It Works
Each Degen market asks whether a token’s price will move Up or Down from a reference price over a defined window.- The available assets and windows can change.
- The reference price is shown on the market card.
- The current price updates while the market is live.
- If the final price is above the reference, Up wins.
- If the final price is below the reference, Down wins.
- The market rules determine any edge cases, such as ties or unavailable price data.
Jupiter Forecast Markets
Some Degen markets carry a Jupiter Forecast label. These are custom short-duration markets operated through a Jupiter market integration, over 5-minute and 15-minute windows, bought with USDC. They currently cover BTC Up or Down in the Crypto tab and SPCX (SpaceX) Up or Down in the Stocks tab. Forecast markets behave like other Degen markets, with two specifics set out in each market’s rules summary:- Resolution source: the outcome is determined from the price feed named in the rules — the Chainlink BTC/USD data stream for BTC, and Pyth Pro signed snapshots (Equity.US.SPCX/USD) for SPCX — not from other price sources or spot markets. If the final price is greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to Up; otherwise it resolves to Down.
- Near-instant settlement: winnings are credited to your wallet automatically shortly after the window closes. There is nothing to claim.
- Market orders only: the trade panel shows a Limit tab, but limit orders are not supported on these markets.
- Order limits: minimum $5 and maximum $1,000 per order.
- Windows open as they go live: upcoming windows are shown but are not tradable until the window is live. A short daily maintenance period, shown in the interface, makes these markets briefly unavailable each day.
- Stock markets follow US market hours: SPCX markets (currently badged No fees) are tradable during the US market session only. Outside those hours, the nearest past or upcoming event is still displayed but cannot be traded. You must acknowledge the terms and conditions before trading a stock market for the first time.
Arcade: One-Minute Markets
The Arcade, in its own tab of the Predict navigation, runs continuous one-minute BTC and SOL Up or Down rounds. It is a parimutuel game: instead of trading contracts against an order book, everyone bets into a shared prize pool and winners split the losing side. Rounds run as a continuous carousel: Ended, Live (locked), Next (open for entry), and Later. You always bet on the Next round; a countdown shows when entry closes, and once the round goes live no more bets are accepted. How a round works:- Pick BTC or SOL, then bet Up or Down on the Next round with USDC (minimum 1 USDC).
- Each side displays a live payout multiplier (for example Up 2.46x) computed from the current pool split. It moves as bets come in, until entry closes.
- The price captured when the round locks is the reference. Up wins if the round’s closing price is above it; Down wins if it is below.
- Winners share the losing pool in proportion to their stake, after a fixed 1% fee on winnings. If only one side has bets, or the closing price equals the reference, the round is VOID and every stake is refunded in full.
- Settlement is automatic and takes a few seconds. Payouts and refunds are sent straight to your wallet; there is nothing to claim.
- You can bet both sides of the same round; the round still settles normally.
Identifying a round
Arcade rounds have no event page or event URL. Each round is its own on-chain account, and the Arcade shows it in two places: the round time on a round card (for example 11:01) is a link to the round’s account on the explorer, and the History view lists each past round with its shortened address (first and last four characters) as an explorer link, next to the date and time. When you contact support about an Arcade bet, give this round address, or the explorer link, together with your wallet address; the settlement transaction links in History help too.Entry limits and errors
Each entry must stay between a minimum and a maximum amount in USDC (the minimum is currently 1 USDC); both come from the Arcade configuration and the bet button shows Below minimum … USDC or Above maximum … USDC when your amount is outside the range, and Insufficient USDC when your balance does not cover it. Quick Bet shows the same messages under the amount. The Up and Down buttons are disabled once the countdown reaches zero and the round locks, and while a previous bet is still being sent. If the button reads Couldn’t load limits, the configuration did not load: reload the page. A bet goes through Preparing Bet, a signature request in your wallet, and Placing Bet; on success the toast Bet placed links to the transaction, and on failure the toast explains the error.Fee Structure
Fees are charged only on executed trades: buying or selling contracts. Fees are included in the quoted amounts shown before you sign, rather than displayed as a separate line.- Fees are charged in whichever mint is used to purchase the contracts.
- Fees are always rounded up to the nearest cent.
- There are no fees when claiming payouts.
- Orders that do not fill pay no trading fee until they execute.
Arcade Fees
Arcade rounds charge a fixed 1% fee on winnings only. Refunded stakes from VOID rounds pay no fee. This schedule is specific to the Arcade and differs from Browse and Degen market fees.Browse Market Fees
For Browse markets sourced from Polymarket, the trading fee has two components: where Polymarket charges a fee on a market, Jupiter charges an additional fee equal to the Polymarket fee. The total trading fee you pay is twice the Polymarket fee. The fee size depends on three factors:- Contract price: the price you pay per contract.
- Number of contracts: fees scale with the size of the trade.
- Outcome uncertainty: trades priced closer to $0.50 are more uncertain, so fees are slightly higher. Trades priced closer to $0.00 or $1.00 are more certain, so fees are lower.
Fee examples
Fee examples
The amounts below are the total trading fee you pay, with the Jupiter fee already included.
For example, buying 100 contracts at $0.25 costs $25.00 in total, with a trading fee of $1.32.
Other Routes and Costs
Markets that use other routes can include additional or different fees:
Degen markets may use a different route from standard Browse markets, so the Polymarket fee table above does not necessarily apply to them. The order quote always shows the fees for the specific market and route before you sign.
When Fees Are Not Charged
- If an order does not execute, trading fees are not charged.
- If an order partially executes, fees apply only to the executed portion.
- Claims and refunds do not charge Predict trading fees, though Solana network fees may still apply.
Settlement Process
Settlement turns a closed market into a final result. Some market routes record an on-chain result, while other routes may settle through their own integration. Most markets settle to YES or NO, but refund and draw outcomes are possible when the rules require them.1
Market closes
Trading stops at the market’s scheduled close time or when the source market stops accepting trades.
2
Result is determined
The market source or integration determines the result according to the market rules.
3
Record or reflect the result
For some market routes, Jupiter records eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own route and update Profile status.
4
Profile updates
Your position is marked as claimable, refundable, automatically settled, lost, or otherwise final.
5
You take action if needed
If Profile shows Claim or a refund action, follow the prompt. When you have claimable positions, a Claim All button appears in the Positions tab and claims them all at once. Some outcomes are processed automatically. Losing positions need no action.
Resolved vs. Claimed
These are separate states:- Resolved means the market result has been finalized and Profile has settlement status. For some market routes, this includes an on-chain result.
- Claimed means a winning payout has been credited to your wallet.
- Refunded means an eligible refund has been credited to your wallet.
Pending vs. Resolved
A market can be resolved by its source before it appears settled on Jupiter. This is expected during the relay and settlement update process. Your Profile updates once final status is available.
When a Market Does Not Resolve as Expected
Most markets settle after their source result is available, but timing is not guaranteed. Possible reasons for a delay:- The real-world event has not produced a clear outcome.
- The market source is waiting for an authoritative result.
- A provider, route, or settlement issue needs investigation.
Cancelled, Voided, or Refunded Markets
If a market is cancelled, voided, or resolved as refundable, eligible positions can receive a refund after final settlement status is available. Eligible refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in Profile. Profile shows the refund status and any available action. If the status does not update after the market has clearly resolved as refundable, contact support via Discord.What to Give Support
When you raise a ticket via Discord, include enough detail for the team to find your trade. The most useful items:- Your wallet address — the full address you traded with, not the truncated form shown in the app.
- The event page URL — every event has its own address, for example
jup.ag/prediction/.... Open the event and copy the URL from the browser address bar: its last segment is the market’s identifier. - For an Arcade round, which has no event URL: the round’s address, shown as a shortened explorer link in the Arcade History view (or by clicking the round time on the round card), and the settlement transaction link from the same row. See Identifying a round.
- What happened and when — the action you took, the result you expected, and the approximate time with your timezone.
- The transaction signature, if the issue concerns a specific order. You can find it in your wallet’s activity history.
- The position details as shown in the Positions tab: event, side, size, and average price.
Leaderboard
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict.- Metrics: PnL, Volume, and Win Rate
- Time filters: All Time, Weekly, and Monthly
- Global stats: total platform volume and total number of predictions
Clans
Clans are trader groups on Jupiter Predict that compete in a weekly PnL race: every trade a member makes counts toward their clan’s weekly total. The competition has its own clan leaderboard with a qualification rule: a clan qualifies for the week by reaching a weekly volume threshold with a positive net PnL. Clans that have not yet qualified are ranked by volume; qualified clans are ranked by PnL. The clan directory lives under the Clans tab (jup.ag/prediction/clans), where each clan shows its name, handle, description, and member count. Joinable clans are listed by member count, with full clans at the end, and each clan’s detail page shows its current-competition PnL in the header.
- Creating a clan: any connected user can create a clan and lead it, choosing a name and a handle (3-64 lowercase letters, numbers, and hyphens). Members are invited after creation. Clans cannot be deleted once created.
- Joining a clan: join with a direct invitation or an invite link from the clan leader, or send a Request to join from the directory and wait for the leader’s approval (the request is a wallet message signature, not a transaction). Pending invitations appear in the directory’s Pending invitations view.
- Member limit: a clan holds at most 50 members. Once full, new invitations, join requests, and acceptances are blocked until a spot frees up.
- Leaving and removal: the clan leader can remove members.
- Member metrics: the clan detail page lists each member with their realized PnL for the current competition period; join requests and invitations also show the candidate’s PnL, number of predictions, and win rate, so leaders can screen who they let in.
- Clan chat: each clan detail page has a chat reserved for the clan’s active members. Messages are signed with your wallet.
On-Chain Costs
Jupiter Predict runs on Solana. Using it requires a small SOL balance for:- Transaction fees: paid when you sign transactions.
- Account rent: temporary deposits required for some on-chain accounts.