How Jupiter Predict works: markets, contracts and orders

This page explains the mechanics behind every Jupiter Predict market: what you buy, how prices work, and how orders execute. For a first trade, see Get started.

What is the difference between an event and a market?

An event is a real-world occurrence with a determinable outcome, for example “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” or “UEFA Champions League Winner”. Each event contains one or more markets. Each market represents one possible outcome within the event and is usually binary: YES or NO. An election event can hold a separate market for each candidate, and each market trades independently. See How do multi-outcome events work?

What states does a market go through?

• Upcoming: the market is visible but trading has not started. The UI may show a countdown.
• Open (Live): the market is trading. Buy and sell actions are available when liquidity and routing support them. Live timed markets show a compact countdown on their card, with an urgency state in the final 30 seconds.
• Closed: trading has stopped. The market is waiting for its result to be determined and recorded.
• Settled: the result is final. Your profile shows a claim, refund, automatic, lost, or final status. See Settlement and payouts.

What is a contract?

A contract is a claim on one side of one market.

• A winning contract pays $1 worth of the market’s settlement asset.
• A losing contract pays $0 and expires worthless.
• Some markets can resolve to a refund or a draw when their rules require it.

How do I read a contract price?

Contract prices usually range from $0.01 to $0.99 and reflect the market-implied probability of that side. A YES contract at $0.65 means traders are currently paying about 65 cents for the YES side. Prices are set by supply and demand: they move with liquidity and new information, and they are not guaranteed probabilities. The Price format choice in the settings menu (the sort icon) on Browse, event, and Degen pages switches the display between Price, in cents (55¢), and Decimal, an odds-style multiplier (1.82x). The choice is saved in your browser. Spread warnings are always expressed in cents, and charts keep the cents format.

Which token do I pay with?

Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token can depend on the market and route, and in some flows Jupiter routes your input into the market’s settlement asset before the order is placed. The order form shows the token you pay with and, once you enter an amount, the quote: size, number of contracts, expected payout, and any estimated refund. These amounts are estimates; final costs depend on the trades that fill and the fees that apply. See Fees.

What is the spread?

Each market has a bid price and an ask price:

• The ask is what you pay when buying.
• The bid is what you receive when selling.

The difference is the spread. Entering and exiting a position costs the spread even if the market price has not moved.

Which order types can I use?

Market orders

Market orders are the main order type on Predict. A market order tries to fill at the best available price within your price protection (Jupiter Forecast markets have none; see below). Execution can take time.

• The quote is based on the current price and liquidity.
• If the price or liquidity changes too much before execution, the order fails or partially fills.
• Jupiter Forecast market orders have no price protection: they fill at the live price when the transaction lands, which can be much worse than the quote. A buy can get far fewer contracts than shown, and a sell far less USDC.
• If less than the full amount executes, unused funds are returned when the order closes.
• Fees are charged only on the executed portion.
• When the estimated slippage of a market order reaches 5%, the app shows High slippage warning with the estimated slippage before you sign: click Confirm & place order to continue, or Cancel. If the estimate already reaches your maximum slippage, the warning reads Order likely to fail and the button Place order anyway. When you close a position, the app also shows Large price impact when slippage would cut the expected size by $2,000 or more.

Limit orders

A limit order fills at your chosen price or better. It can fill immediately or wait for a match. Switch the order form to the Limit tab and enter your price.

• Available on Polymarket-sourced markets only, and only as limit buys. Limit sells are disabled.
• Limit orders do not expire: an order stays open until it fills or you cancel it. When the market resolves, an unfilled order is closed automatically and its remaining funds are returned to your wallet in JupUSD, usually within about a minute.
• Open limit orders are listed in the Open Orders tab of your profile. To cancel one before it is matched, click Cancel on its row and approve the transaction in your wallet if asked. Canceling costs a network fee of 0.00005 SOL, and is not possible during the first 15 seconds after the order is placed. The cancellation can take a moment to complete; the reserved funds for the unfilled part are returned when the order closes.
• Jupiter Forecast markets and sports ticket markets are market-order only. A Limit tab may still appear on the order form there, but it is disabled.

What happens when I place an order?

In normal use, you only sign the transaction shown in your wallet. This process can involve on-chain accounts, route execution, keepers, and market integrations behind the scenes. You do not need to manage them.

How does Quick Buy work?

Quick Buy buys in one tap, skipping the order form. Open the Quick Buy control (the lightning icon with an amount, on Browse and Degen), turn on Quick buy, and set the amount and the token to pay with: USDC, SOL, or JupUSD. Quick Buy is off by default, and the settings are saved in your browser. With Quick Buy on, a Yes, No, Up, or Down button and Copy bet place an order for that amount right away, after your wallet signature. A toast follows the order until the position opens. The Arcade has its own one-tap setting, Quick bet.

Combos

A combo, or parlay, is a single bet on 2 to 50 picks from sports and esports games, including several picks from the same game. Every pick must win for the combo to pay out.

Build a combo

• Open Combos in the Predict navigation: it lists the games that accept combos, and each outcome you tap becomes a pick in the combo slip. On a sports or esports event page, turn on Combo to add picks from that page instead of opening the order form.
• The slip lists your picks with their current prices. Tapping a pick again removes it, and picking another outcome of the same market replaces the earlier pick. A market that can’t be combined shows Can’t add to combo, and a closed one must be removed before you place the combo.
• On jup.ag in a phone browser or a narrow window, the slip opens from the Combo bar at the bottom of the screen. Your picks stay in the slip while the browser tab is open, until you place the combo or click Clear all.

Place a combo

Enter your stake: at least 1 USDC, or another token whose swap to USDC delivers at least $1. There is no maximum stake beyond what can be quoted: when no quote is available, the slip shows Combo unavailable. The slip shows the payout as a multiplier and an amount, and compares it with the same stake split evenly across separate picks. Fees are already taken out of the payout shown: the slip has no separate fee line. Click Place combo and sign in your wallet. The info icon under the button sets out the rules:

• Your combo is priced again after payment, so your payout may be lower if odds move.
• Combos can’t be sold early: a combo runs until its games are settled.
• Winnings are sent to your wallet automatically, with nothing to claim. Refunds and change are sent in USDC.

Winnings are paid in USDC. If your wallet has no USDC token account, the payout stays pending until one exists. If a combo is not placed, any payment received is refunded to your wallet automatically.

Track, share, or copy a combo

The Combos tab of your profile lists your combos with their size, payout, PnL, and status, and Show picks expands each one. On a row:

• The share icon opens Share Combo: an image of the combo and its picks, with its combo code. Copy Link copies a link that opens Combos with the same picks in the slip, and Post opens a post on X.
• Copy Combo, on an open combo, loads its picks into your slip on Combos.

Opening a shared combo link while your slip already holds picks asks whether to Replace Picks or Keep My Picks.

What are the order limits?

Limits depend on the market type. The order form shows the limits that apply; the values below are the current ones, and the app prevails.

Where do the markets come from?

Jupiter Predict surfaces markets from external prediction market providers and Jupiter-supported market integrations. Browse markets are currently sourced from Polymarket, alongside short-duration crypto markets and other Jupiter-supported integrations.

• Not every market from every source is available on Jupiter.
• Some markets can be view-only, closed, unavailable in your region, or temporarily unavailable for buys or sells.
• Each market follows its own published rules. Read the rules summary on the event page before trading.
• Some market routes record eligible results on-chain; other integrations settle through their own process and reflect the status in your profile. See Settlement and payouts.
• Predict has no market creation flow: new markets come from the providers and integrations, not from Jupiter.

How do orders differ by market source?